An area of low pressure over northern Virginia has produced periods of light to moderate snow over much of the northern Mid Atlantic this morning. The heaviest snowfall has fallen over northern New Jersey, while the rest of New Jersey has experienced light snow mixed with rain at times and barely accumulating on paved surfaces.
This disturbance is rapidly weakening though due to the interaction of a strong upper low over western Quebec, Canada and a building ridge over the Southeast. As these two features interact, winds converge in the upper levels which forces air to sink to the surface. This sinking air will cause much of the snow and rain over the region to become scattered and light as the morning continues.
Another disturbance over the central Great Lakes and Upper Mid West will also move towards the Mid Atlantic coast tonight through tomorrow morning. This low pressure system will be moving into even stronger area of upper level convergence aloft as the upper low over Quebec this morning moves toward northern Maine tonight. This type of upper level environment is not favorable for snowfall for the region. As the low pressure system moves east tonight, the precipitation shield will start to weaken and become compressed on the northern edge as dry, cold air presses south. The atmosphere for this low pressure system will be much colder with temperatures cold enough to support snowfall even for southern New Jersey. However, the dry, sinking air will prevent steady snow to fall north of central New Jersey with only scattered snow showers expected for northern New Jersey. For southern and central New Jersey, most locations can expect snowfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches with up to 6 inches possible for extreme southern New Jersey. However, these 6 inch snowfall totals will be very isolated. The latest snowfall forecast can be found here.
After this second low pressure system exits by noon tomorrow, high pressure will be in control tomorrow afternoon through Friday morning with dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Much like last week, tomorrow will be the coldest day of the week followed by a steady moderate in high temperatures back into the 50’s to potentially a few lower 60’s by Friday afternoon.
A strong cold front is expected on Friday evening with an area of low pressure moving from the Tennessee River Valley to the central Hudson Valley. At this time, all of the northern Mid Atlantic is expected to be on the warm side of this low pressure system leading to periods of rain on Friday evening followed by falling temperatures on Saturday morning back to near normal temperatures. Dry and seasonably cool weather conditions are expected for next weekend followed by another strong cold front on Monday.
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