Many of us went back to work this morning to much colder temperatures then we have seen over the past few days as a cold front swept through late last night. High temperatures were in the low-mid 30s this afternoon and we will see more of the same for Tuesday and a little colder on Wednesday. In fact, the cold weather is locked in for the foreseeable future, and it may get severe across the country in the coming weeks.
There is still the potential for snow at the end of the week with a very complicated setup that continues to shift in all kinds of directions from computer model to computer model. This one will not get ironed out until within 2 days, but for now it is a safe bet that we will see at least a chance for snow showers developing later Thursday as this system drops down from Canada and towards the East Coast.
It is at this time during the Friday/Saturday timeframe that a coastal storm will try to redevelop along the Atlantic seaboard. Depending on how far south this occurs and how all of the energy involved interacts will determine whether or not we get an accumulating snow event out of this in the NJ/NYC metro area. Right now we’re more or less on the fence with the most favored areas for a significant hit out of this storm being further north in New England, and the least favored areas being the mid-Atlantic areas from Philadelphia on southward. I am not confident enough to say either way at the moment, however, if I had to bet on a solution, it would be against a significant storm for our area. Because the setup is so complicated and needs to come together just right, this makes the storm a bit of a longshot in my opinion, but we will see. Definitely something to keep watching though, and there are a few more threats afterwards that I’m also watching and may have a better chance at producing snow.
The late week storm system at the very least will carry an impressive shot of cold air that will cross over our area at that time, but if some of the long range computer models are correct, we may see an impressive nationwide cold outbreak for the following week and beyond. Both the European model, GFS computer model, and their ensemble members by days 8-10 show an unusually strong area of upper level high pressure that would move north across Alaska and into Siberia. What this would do in turn is force brutally cold air that has its roots in Siberia (Northern Russia), across the North Pole and into Canada. In conjunction with the blocking pattern in place featuring more high pressures in Greenland and the Polar Regions, this would force this cold air to dump into the United States around mid-month. This makes sense as it also fits into climatology as the coldest time of the year, but this has potential to be particularly severe. The worst areas hit would probably be the Northern Rockies and the Plains states, but the entire country would likely be affected by it and the core of the cold would eventually sweep east as well. A long ways to go with this, but it is worth mentioning.