It’s easy to say the Leafs have been a big disappointment this year with the team currently sitting in 12th place in the Eastern Conference, 11 points out of a playoff spot. However, when you break down the numbers and take a lot at each individual forward’s performance, you might come to a different conclusion.
I analyzed each Leaf forward and calculated their points/game played this season * 30 (game remaining) + their current total of points. For example, Clarke MacArthur has scored (.808 points/game * 30) + 42 (current point total) = 66 points (his projected total points). The same formula was used to project a goal scoring total. I then compared these projections with the player’s career highs in goals and points to see how they have performed.
- Clarke MacArthur: Career High Points = 31, Career High Goals = 17. Projected Points = 66 (+35), Projected Goals = 25 (+8)
- Nikolai Kulemin: CHP = 36, CHG = 16. PP = 58 (+22), PG = 28 (+12)
- Darryl Boyce*: CHP = 0, CHG = 0. PP = 16 (+16), PG = 8 (+8)
- Tim Brent*: CHP = 1, CHG = 1. PP = 16 (+15), PG = 9 (+8)
- Mikhail Grabovski: CHP = 48, CHG = 20. PP = 62 (+14), PG = 33 (+13)
- Joey Crabb*: CHP = 9, CHG = 4. PP = 17 (+8), PG = 0 (-4)
- Tyler Bozak*: CHP = 27, CHG = 8. PP = 31 (+4), PG = 13 (+5)
- Mike Brown**: CHP = 7, CHG = 6. PP = 10 (+3), PG = 4 (-2)
- Kris Versteeg: CHP = 53, CHG = 22. PP = 55 (+2), PG = 22 (E)
- John Mitchell**: CHP = 29, CHG = 12. PP = 6 (-23), PG = 5 (-7)
- Fredrik Sjostrom: CHP = 23, CHG = 10. PP = 7 (-16), PG = 2 (-8)
- Colby Armstrong**: CHP = 40, CHG = 22. PP = 27 (-13), PG = 11 (-11)
- Phil Kessel: CHP = 60, CHG = 36. PP = 53 (-7), PG = 30 (-6)
- Colton Orr: CHP = 6, CHG = 4. PP = 3 (-3), PG = 3 (-1)
*Denotes a player who is either in their rookie/sophomore season or who has not played a significant number of games in a previous season.
**Denotes a player who has missed a significant number of games this season due to injury/healthy scratch
I wasn’t at all surprised to see how much MacArthur, Kulemin, and Grabovski have been exceeding their career-high numbers by. All three have been playing outstanding this season and the numbers reflect their performance. A lot of fans have been harping on Tyler Bozak and Kris Versteeg for not playing up to their potential but if you look at the numbers they are on pace to match their career-bests. I wasn’t surprised to find Phil Kessel in the “under-achievers” category but somewhat surprised to see he’s not all that far off his career-highs in points or goals. I can’t really find any explanation for why Fredrik Sjostrom hasn’t been able to put up any points this season. Of course he’s had limited playing time and this study does not take into account his contributions on defence/penalty-kills but I was shocked to see he’s on pace to record 16 less points than his career-best season.
What do you think?
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