Predicting Oscar & PGA Awards based on historical data
Producers Guild of America
The 2011 Producers Guild Awards are Saturday, January 22, 2011. The Producers Guild of America awards films with the finest producing work of the year. They have over 4,000 members. The PGA began awarding films in 1990. The PGA tends to nominate the same number of films as Oscar. I will use PGA and Oscar statistics to predict the PGA winner and the Oscar nominees.
PREDICTING THE OSCAR NOMINEES
1) PGA winners match Oscar winners 71% of the time:
PGA Win Statistics
PGA & Oscar Match 15 71%
Don’t Match 6 29%
TOTAL Years 21
The PGA and the Academy have matched 15 out of the 21 years that the PGA has been in existence. That is a 71% match rate for wins. That’s really not that great, but it can still tell us a lot. For the last 3 years, the PGA and Oscar winners have matched exactly, but the 3 years before that, they did not match. Below is where the PGA and Oscars deviate:
PGA Best Picture Oscar Best Picture
2006 Little Miss Sunshine The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain Crash
2004 The Aviator Million Dollar Baby
2001 Moulin Rouge! A Beautiful Mind
1995 Apollo 13 Braveheart*
1992 The Crying Game Unforgiven
*Also, note that in 1995 Braveheart won the Oscar for Best Picture, but was not even nominated for PGA. This is the only time that has ever happened and as long as there are 10 nominees each year, I don’t see this ever happening again.
2) PGA nominees match Oscar nominees 78% of the time:
PGA Nom Statistics
PGA & Oscar Match 67 79%
Don’t Match 18 21%
TOTAL Years 18
This is actually a pretty good match rate. The last 5 years that both the PGA and Oscar nominated 5 films, the nominees matched 4/5 each year. Last year, when both nominated 10 films, they matched 8/10 (Oscar replaced Star Trek and Invictus with A Serious Man & The Blind Side). This averages to right at 80%.
3) Precursors Thoughts
The Social Network has been completely dominating the precursor awards. The only other films that have won a precursor best picture award are Winter’s Bone, Inception & The King’s Speech. The Social Network has won all 26 other best pictures out right and has tied for two other ones with Black Swan and 127 Hours.
OSCAR NOMINEE PREDICTIONS
Based on the 80% rule that the PGA and Oscar seem to follow year after year, I will assume that 2 of the 10 PGA nominees will be replaced by Oscar. Right now there are 3 films that are in danger. The problem is, I have no idea the other movies that could replace them and be nominated for the Oscar Best Picture. Below are my first out-first in thoughts.
First Out – First In
1) The Town 1) Winter’s Bone
2) 127 Hours 2) ?????
3) The Kids Are All Right 3) ?????
I think that Oscar will deviate from their tradition of nominating 80% of the PGA nominees. Oscar will nominate the all of the films on the PGA nominee list except for The Town. It will be replaced by Winter’s Bone. As far as the Best Picture winner… 3 years in a row PGA and Oscar didn’t match. The last 3 years they did match. Can they make it 4 in a row? I think so. I think it’s dumb to bet against The Social Network at this point, especially if it wins the PGA.
PREDICTING THE PGA WINNER
1) Box Office Thoughts
Avg BO PGA Winner – $158M
Highest BO PGA Winner – $600M – Titanic
Lowest BO PGA Winner – $17M – The Hurt Locker
Avg ROI PGA Winner – 416%
Highest ROI PGA Winner – 1600% – The Crying Game
Lowest ROI PGA Winner – (7%) – The Aviator
Here is a list of the 2011 PGA nominees with their Box Office information. The average Box Office for a PGA winner is right at $150M.
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Based on the statistics above, 127 Hours is out. It’s ROI is way too low. This is unfortunate because it’s a great film, but was released horribly. Danny Boyle won the PGA in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire and had a very good chance to do the same with 127 Hours. Judging by this, one might think that Black Swan and The Kids Are All Right are clear favorites with a +400% ROI.
OUT: 127 Hours
2) Genre Thoughts
Below is a top 5 list of PGA and Oscar wins by Genre. Genre may not mean anything at all when it comes to the PGA’s. The genres that PGA awards look pretty diverse, but it’s clear to see that the Oscars favor dramas.
Drama 2 Drama 3
Musical 2 Crime Drama 2
Romance 2 Historical Epic 2
Western 2 Romance 2
Action/Thriller 1 Comedy/Drama 1
Below is a list of the 2011 PGA nominees and their genres. 6 of the 10 films are categorized as some type of drama. True Grit is listed as a Western, which is another multiple PGA winning genre. I wouldn’t count out The Kids Are All Right, though. The PGA has awarded different comedies in the past like Little Miss Sunshine, Shakespeare In Love & Forrest Gump. The PGA has never awarded a Sci-Fi Action or Animation, though. Perhaps this means that films that cost too much are not as likely to win (except for Titanic).
2011 PGA Nominees
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Kids Are All Right
Toy Story 3
OUT: Inception, Toy Story 3, 127 Hours
2011 PGA Winner Prediction:
These statistics don’t really say a lot as far as predicting the PGA winner. Gun to my head, anything crossed off the list above is out for reasons specified earlier.
The Town – was released too early. Good reviews but not enough buzz.
The Kids Are All Right – was released too early. Good reviews and buzz. Great Box Office
The Fighter – hasn’t gotten quite as much buzz as the others.
True Grit – an okay film. great box office.
The King’s Speech – was released perfectly. A great film, but the buzz has died down
Black Swan – was awesome at the box office, which is just what you want from a film
The Social Network – has won everything. good box office. great buzz. DVD release this month.
2011 PGA Winner Prediction: The Social Network
Note: as soon as the Oscar Nominations and Guild Awards come out, I will revise my predictions.
All of the films nominated for PGA can be found on Netflix, Redbox or in theatres in the Nasvhille area.